Krauthammer has concluded the Iraqis are incapable of Democracy and unworthy of our sacrifice. Sisyphus says it's about time.
Well, let's posit that. Assume Krauthammer and the rest are right. The Iraqis are too busy killing each other for tribal gains to ever keep the republic we gave them at great expense. It was nice thinking they were going to be our friends, that future Iraqi presidents would get with us much as the Japanese prime minister does now, but assume it's just not in the cards. Now what do we do?
Confucius say "When in hole, first ---- stop digging!" If we really are going to say our current plan isn't working, then we must change it. Duh.
We could just pack up and leave right now. It would take a few months to physically get all our troops and stuff home, but there's nothing stopping us from just giving them the finger and leaving. Think on that. We could just say "You're not worthy" and leave. Then what? Well, then a blood bath, obviously, with Iraq partitioned between Iran and Turkey in much the way Poland was between the good ol' SovU and Nazi Germany, with those plucky little al Q'uaeda boys bombing away in an attempt to seize the place for themselves. After a few years, however it shakes out, you've got a big semi-industrial Afghanistan with lots of oil money and weapons of mass destruction (oh shut up). Isn't that terrific?
Well, no. It sucks. That story ends with millions of dead Israelis and New Yorkers, followed by pretty much the entire population of Arabs and Persians. Plus, India would get a lot of fallout from Mesopotamia. I have a problem with that. Presumably, the nice new Baker Commission will also have a problem with that.
How to get around it? It's easy to say "This is another fine mess you've gotten us into", but hard to come up with a plan C.
Iraq is an artificial nation, made by the Colonial Powers at the end of the Colonial Period, aka World War I, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, yada yada yada. We know all that. We can't pay for the sins of our fathers by compounding their errors. Iraq must be split into at least three nations. The Kurds, with our help to protect them from the Turks, will do just fine. I think a Kurdish President can sit down for coffee with a future American President no problem in a New York minute and with us still having New York City. That's good. The Turks won't like it, but they're the same Turks who prevented the 4th Infantry Division from going into the north of Iraq. Screw the Turks. While we're drawing lines on the map, we give the Kurds as much of the oil as they can keep.
We give the rest of the oil to the Shiites in the south and east.
We give the Sunnis nothing. They had their chance and they blew it. If the Shiites want to wipe the Sunnis out, why should we care any more about that than we care about Darfur or cared about Rwanda, Cambodia, et. al.? They are unworthy of our sacrifice, remember? So just sit back and watch a very bloody and energetic ethnic cleansing while doing just enough by hook and by crook to keep the Iraqi Shiites from hooking up with the Iranians. Divide and conquer. Those people are not our friends. They don't like us and they don't want to be like us. Rather, they want us dead and converted to Islam, in that order.
Baghdad is a bit of a problem, being all ethnically mixed up, but remember your Monty Python: "Cities do burn, you know." From what I've seen, Baghdad would be no great loss. Let everyone get out, then flatten it. Too bad so sad. You should have listened to the part about "No better friend. No worse enemy." (Although, the Marines are wrong about the second part; the worst enemy you can have is the USAF who will make you glow in the dark if given the chance.)
Keeping those two groups fighting will in fact be an important part of our new realistic plan. If they're too busy killing each other to be killing us, then they won't be killing us. Oh yeah, and while we're at it we take out the Iranian nuclear facilities with nice big nuclear warheads of our own. I just don't think the Ayatollahs will get the message unless it's radioactive and megatonnage. Remember, they're not worthy of our sacrifice and we don't want to see Tel Aviv or New York or Washington vaporized. We're facing facts now, not wishing those people could be taught to play nice.
Been there tried that got the knife in the back.
Will we do it? Nah, we're not that hardened to the facts of war yet. The Baker Commission will come up with something squishy, politically correct and half-measureish. We will do it, but not until after we've lost Tel Aviv and New York, and maybe Washington DC as well. This is what the war has been all about all along. Maybe if we'd been upfront about what it was really all about, maybe that would have made the vital difference, but it isn't about "woulda coulda shoulda" anymore. I'll miss New York and Tel Aviv, and cherry trees and the Jefferson Monument, but DC will be getting what it deserves. If you're a lefty, you probably think we deserve to be nuked. If you're a moderate, you probably think that the effort in Iraq failed because of poor planning. If you're a righty, you probably think the effort failed because half our people never put their shoulder to the wheel. Whatever. That's not important any more. Our Wilsonian adventure in Mesopotamia was doomed because the Muslims are mentally ill, murderous, and therefore unworthy of our sacrifice.
OK, we assumed the first point from which all the rest flowed: The Iraqis are incapable of putting aside their murderous mentally ill Muslimness and making a Republic. Are they? Do we really think that? Or is the truth more like this:
The Iraqis, like all peoples, are capable of decent behavior, but creating Republics and Democracy for them is going to be a lot harder and take a lot longer than we ever thought.
Then the obvious question is: Is it worth it? The obvious answer is "yes". Of course it's worth any effort to prevent the annihilation of Tel Aviv, New York, Washington, Baghdad, Tehran, Damascus, etc. But can it be done? Can Armageddon be prevented? Is it possible? And how?
Well, I've got to cook breakfast for my kinder now. Let's think about how to keep them alive and well.